Henceforth, my own published prices each week will be a lot more opinionated.
I’ve been publicly churning out my tournament sheets since 2012; privately since 2003. In recent times I’ve become bored with the player pricing aspect. Fair enough, right?
So, to re-energise my interest, I plan to change things up a bit.
I’ve always calculated my own prices (odds) for each player to win outright – for just about every golf tournament on which there is betting (and dfs).
If I planned to publish my prices, I mostly awaited bookmaker prices & cross-checked before publication, for three reasons:
- Sometimes, I want to bet on what I view as a wrong bookmaker price before sharing and;
- We all make mistakes so I like to ensure that I don’t publish too many large, or just plain stupid, pricing errors and, most significantly;
- I massage a lot of my own prices closer to the market, simply because I can’t be bothered defending, or discussing on twitter, 57 differing price opinions for which I have a low care factor.
So, an element of my sheet preparation process has been price conservatism. That’s now out the door.
My New Approach
For selected tournaments, I’m henceforth going to publish my own completely unedited prices for followers, alongside the market prices. I’ll do this for at least: PGA, European, Champions & LPGA Tours; more if time permits….
Over time you’ll be able to judge for yourself whether or not this higher level of price differentiation is a value-add. If it’s not, I’ll stop.
Firstly, it’ll be more enjoyable for me and I need that shot in the arm!
Secondly, this output could be of interest because the state of today’s odds-making is such that in golf, as in other sports, there is only a tiny group of professionals and all other ‘bookmakers’ (sic) or ‘odds-setters’ (sic) simply: steal, Copy & Paste.
In such an environment, one odds-maker’s opinion can swiftly become every bookmaker’s opinion and then quickly morph into a uniform, global, betting market.
I’m going to bring to this environment a second, independent, set of strong price opinions that will sometimes conflict with that global uniformity.
What does this mean for you?
It means there’ll often be an alternative, informed, price opinion out there.
For example, you may be staring at a bookmaker or betting exchange price or a DK salary and thinking to yourself “That’s just fucking wrong!”
Given the above-mentioned homegeneity in betting markets, there’s nowhere for you to get a second opinion – to affirm or challenge your personal judgement.
My hope is that my output might be that second opinion.
Some Comments on Modern Bookmaking
With the ever-increasing, global, corporatisation & computerisation of sports bookmaking, accountants and risk managers (ie mostly colourless wankers) are looking over the shoulders of every bookmaker, every week.
This oversight has two profound effects:
Firstly, it creates Fear.
Once a golf betting market exists, every bookmaker is reluctant to challenge it because the only way to protect his job after a bad week’s results is to have a defence in place.
A common & good defence is, “Our prices were in line with the market. Sorry Boss, not my fault, the wrong guy won.”
Secondly, the primary flow-on effect of this fear is the auto-generation of Sameness or Price Uniformity.
A golf bookmaker can now rarely (never?) use his skills, golf & customer knowledge to try to make more money for his business via price differentiation – so those prices we see, and the dfs salaries which to some extent derive from them, are boringly and suspiciously uniform.
In fact, they’re basically all the same! Always! Everywhere! In a normal human world, there would be many differing, professional, price opinions all over the place. Sadly, the inhumane accountants have put paid to that!
I’ll get started as soon as I can. Two or three tournaments this week; full-on by next week.
It won’t be every tournament (I don’t have the time) but I’ll properly prepare and publish as much as I can.
Based on my past observations, you’ll be surprised at the size of some of the price variances, and hopefully pleased as well.
Good Luck with all of your golf gambling involvement.