I’ve never reflected back on my tipping until now; in hindsight, most tips are utter crap and easily forgotten, yet the nice longshot winners do linger in the memory. I bet on all except one of my tipped winners
In this context of memory, tipping’s a bit like a bad round of golf by a hacker such as me where the: yipped putts, chunked or thinned chips and sliced drives are swiftly forgotten but that one arrow-straight 4-iron to the heart of the green will live on for years in the memory!
With 14 months of weekly tips now on the record, I thought I’d sift through and summarise the outcomes. Mainly to see if it’s worth persevering and whether there’s any value-add.
There was no staking plan (not enough time) but these numbers will nonetheless inform to some extent.
Total Golfers Tipped
Over the 14 months I tipped 560 golfers; most played. This represented an average of 10 tips per week, across all Tours. 75% of these bums (446) didn’t finish in the Top10.
There were 15 winners with odds ranging from 6/1 – 140/1.
The average win odds were a bit over 46/1.
One unit to win on every tip would have cost 560 and yielded 698.
There were 69 golfers (incl the 15 winners) who placed Top5. ie 15 winners and 54 places.
Their average win odds were a bit over 54/1, so the average place odds were 13.5/1.
There would have been some ties, so maybe the average place odds were 11/1? I didn’t check.
This means that one unit per golfer for Top5 would have cost 560 and yielded 760.
I didn’t crunch the odds but, for the record, the total number of golfers who placed Top10 was 114. Roughly 25%.
I’m going ok. There’s a profit there for win, each way & place punters, although it’s a very fragile thing. Like the psyches of tipsters; mine included!
Tipping is public and thus sets one up for plenty of ridicule, frustration and embarrassment; big plaudits to those who, unlike me, do it properly!
Most of my winners were away from the two primary Tours – PGA & Euro – confirming my long held belief that the weaker a field the greater the opportunity to profit via betting on research of that less disclosed form.
I’ll decide soon whether to continue my tipping; currently I feel about 50:50 and hence this review. Feedback is therefore welcomed.
Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 27 July 2019.