Golf Editorial

20190901 Golf Needs More Majors

Introduction

Mens’ golf has played four Majors each year for many decades and they are the most prestigious tournaments of any year. I believe this is a great because, as in tennis, there are four big opportunities for players to realise a dream and define their legacy; every year. Spread throughout the year.

Conversely, in most sports there’s just one big opportunity a year, or biannually or even quadrennially: Superbowl, World Series, Champions League Final, Stanley Cup, Football, Cricket or Rugby World Cup, Olympics…….

Therein lies an insoluble problem for the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. PGA Tour is attempting to mimic many major sports with a post-season spectacular but it’s inherently doomed to failure because of the status of the Majors. In my opinion, the FEC should therefore be scrapped as part of an overhaul of the global golf calendar.

The composition of the Majors has changed over the decades but the number hasn’t. The ‘Majors’ originally consisted of: the British and US Opens and Amateurs but for the past 60 years, effectively since Arnold Palmer first talked about “winning his own grand slam to try and match Bobby Jones” the Major menu has remained unchanged: Masters, US Open, Open Championship & PGA Championship.

That’s all fine but after 60 years I suspect it’s time to add more.

How Many Majors should there be?

I say there should be seven.

Before the traditionalists fall off their chairs, please bear with me. I make my case for seven Majors in the context of two adjustments to golf’s existing annual menu of tournaments, as follows:

  • Scrap the FedEx Cup; it’s irrelevant as well as an obscene waste of money and;
  • Scrap the WGC’s; they’re quaint but redundant.

Womens’ and Seniors’ golf both play five Majors each year and there’s nothing wrong with that. In this context, Mens’ golf as a bigger revenue-driver and attractor of eyes, logically should have more than five. So I say let’s start with seven.

Whither the WGC’s

These tournaments belong to IFPGAT; the International Federation of PGA Tours. Ever heard of it? It was founded in 1996 “to enable the world’s leading tours to discuss common and global issues in professional golf.”

That’s warm and fuzzy but, in my opinion, IFPGAT should have no engagement in sanctioning tournaments; especially committee-generated, no-cut, events carrying bloated purses yet with entry granted to lower-level (with all due respect) golfers solely because they had a good season in: Japan, Australia or South Africa. In my opinion, this is nothing more than a quaint paternal sop to lesser Federation members….

So, I say scrap the WGC’s to help clear the way for the introduction of golf’s 5th, 6th and 7th Majors.

Of course, there is no issue with any Tour hosting a ‘World Matchplay’ or annual big money tournaments in Mexico or China, but such tournaments should, in my opinion, be regular Tour events and succeed or fail on merit rather than bolstered by artificial ‘WGC status’

No More Opposite Field Events

The removal of the WGC’s would enable disadvantaged events: Sanderson Farms, Puntacana, Barracuda & Puerto Rico to have their opportunity to flourish or die, as the market determines, with purses of $6-7m (not $3-4m) and stronger fields.

An added benefit is focus. For golfers, fans and viewers. There’d be two ‘big’ tournaments every week (except December): a PGA Tour & a European Tour event. Better for television, better for spectators (stronger fields), better for the main tours, better for gamblers and a better timezone spread too.

On the topic of focus, if I were king of the golf world there would be no main Tour tournaments played opposite a Major. So I’d cancel or reschedule the Barbasol Championship. The Open Championship should stand in splendid isolation; all Majors should; all seven of them.

Keep the Four Current Majors?

The current Majors are played in USA (3) and UK (1). All carry heritage and prestige (PGA Championship being the weakling of the four in this regard) and should arguably remain in the Major rotation.

However, I’d consider transferring the PGA Championship’s Major status to The Players Championship. With its venue having been one key to The Masters’ prestige and familiarity, it makes sense to add another high quality permanent venue, TPC Sawgrass,

Also, having got rid of IFPGAT it would make some sense to get rid of PGA of America from the Major-sanction scene and have its replacement, The Players Championship, under the aegis of the PGA Tour.

Where to Play the Three New Majors?

I approached this vexed matter by taking: money, geo-location and inter-organisational jealousy into account. In the end, I concluded that the Middle East and China should each gain a Major while I couldn’t make a case for either mainland Europe or North America owning the third new Major outright – so I deemed they should share it.

The Middle Eastern Major would be the first of each year and scheduled late in February, likely under the aegis of the European & MGT Tours. It would take the slot currently occupied by Oman or Qatar and could be annually rotated around the region: UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.

The Intercontinental Major would sit in a September slot and alternate between Europe & North America. Perhaps it should rotate through existing quality venues such as: Le Golf National, Valderrama, Riviera, Doral and the like?

The Chinese Major to end each Major season is logically the longstanding WGC tournament in Sheshan, held at the end of October; place it under the aegis of the CGA. Its timing perfectly ties in with my revised Major chronology (see below), stretching the Major season from late February to late October.

A New Major Schedule

While the most recent schedule change, shifting the PGA Championship from August to May, was a slight improvement it did create an issue in that the four Majors were compressed between early April and mid-July. On average, one every 4.5 weeks.

I believe seven Majors from late Feb to late October, one every five to six weeks and with no WGC’s, would be better for players’ Major preparation while simultaneously stretching ‘the interest season’ and making it more global and inclusive in its imprint.

Key to this approach is a more global perspective whereby PGA Tour, in particular, changes four mindsets:

  • There should be no fall swing; it’s a defeatist mindset;
  • The golf Major season should be longer and exist independent of american football;
  • The FedEx Cup is a flawed concept; it should be scrapped and;
  • The golf year (season) should follow the natural rhythm of a calendar year.

European Tour would potentially gain a bit through the removal of the FedEx Cup and involvement in two more Majors. However, it also needs to change:

  • More resources should be allocated to its tournaments preceding the Middle East, Intercontinental & Open Championship Majors;
  • Defensive negative moves, such a requiring a minimum number of events to be played to retain Tour membership, should be scrapped and;
  • The tournament schedule should revert to a calendar year, ending in November and;
  • The Race to Dubai should be trashed and replaced by a season-ending Tour Championship (Dubai?); same format as PGA Tour’s Tournament of Champions.

I believe my mooted changes support all of the above. Here’s a rough revised Major schedule:

End February: Middle East

Early April: Masters

Mid-May: Players (or PGA)

Mid-June: US Open

Mid-July: The Open

September: Intercontinental (USA & Europe alternating)

End October: China

There’s longer spacing between Majors to give top players time to rest and try to peak seven times per year. Currently they need to try and peak 8 times from March to October but 7 of those are March to August.

There are multiple windows in which European Tour could strategically schedule its Rolex Series / flagship tournaments.

There’s a natural Mid-East swing to start the season with the recently introduced Saudi tournament capable of slotting in with Qatar and the new Middle East Major in February.

There is still room for the accommodation of non-annual events such as the Ryder Cup and Olympic Games in August or September.

There’s a natural ‘Asian’ swing end to the season with the new Zozo Championship slotting in with the CJ Cup & the new China Major in October.

 

Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 1 September 2019.

Golf Editorial

20190822 The European Tour, Slavery & Human Trafficking

It’s irritating to me that the European Tour has spent resources to develop, publish & implement a policy on slavery & human trafficking yet cannot muster the resources to answer genuine golf questions from its twitter followers.

While I readily acknowledge that slavery is an inherent element of most golf tournaments, it’s not a truly pressing issue. Those slaves (volunteers) pretty much enter golf servitude with their eyes wide open.

Besides, they do get to see some wonderful golf up close and receive food vouchers, day passes and even a bit of free swag. It’s not even slavery if viewed from this perspective!

Human trafficking must be a thorn in the side of pro golf to merit this policy focus? Those persons trafficked across golf courses certainly have my full sympathy. We must empathise with persons trafficked into the USA across border golf courses in Mexico or Canada. Likewise persons trafficked into mainland Europe across: Spanish, Greek, Portugese or Italian golf courses.

However, facetiousness aside and to return to my original theme, the European Tour exists solely to benefit its members (the players) and the funding to do so comes from you and me: the paying spectators, television viewers and consumers of the products and services of Tour sponsors. Many of us also have twitter accounts and therein lies the nub.

We internet users are fatigued by political correctness (eg policy statements on slavery & trafficking); it’s broadly perceived as facile lip service to the god of PC.

Newsflash: European Tour, we’ll judge your actions rather than your policy words. Actions, for example, like hosting a tournament in Saudi Arabia at a time when the Saudi regime had apparently just orchestrated the murder of a prominent anti-regime journalist. Also, do you really believe that none of the migrant workers in Saudi are de facto slaves?

Anyway, I believe the Tour’s sensitivities should primarily lie in satisfying its revenue generators. This even includes a twitter user who asks a question but who is always ignored. The Tour should treat all such users with equal respect. It doesn’t.

On this topic, I have a recurring fantasy that as a big business CEO I’m in a meeting with some European Tour marketing heavyweights who are pitching a new multi-million Euro Rolex Series, or something along those lines. I’d love to positively string them along for months then, suddenly and late, pull the rug out from under them.

At which time, I’d let them know that their organisation’s actions indicate that it believes social media is a one-way street, where self-serving content can be pumped out every day into already suffocated timelines but feedback and questions (from revenue generators) are systemically ignored.

There’s no respect!

 

Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 23 August 2019.

 

Uncategorized

20190729 Tips Summary 1Jun18 – 29Jul19

Introduction

I’ve never reflected back on my tipping until now; in hindsight, most tips are utter crap and easily forgotten, yet the nice longshot winners do linger in the memory. I bet on all except one of my tipped winners

In this context of memory, tipping’s a bit like a bad round of golf by a hacker such as me where the: yipped putts, chunked or thinned chips and sliced drives are swiftly forgotten but that one arrow-straight 4-iron to the heart of the green will live on for years in the memory!

With 14 months of weekly tips now on the record, I thought I’d sift through and summarise the outcomes. Mainly to see if it’s worth persevering and whether there’s any value-add.

There was no staking plan (not enough time) but these numbers will nonetheless inform to some extent.

Total Golfers Tipped

Over the 14 months I tipped 560 golfers; most played. This represented an average of 10 tips per week, across all Tours. 75% of these bums (446) didn’t finish in the Top10.

Winners

There were 15 winners with odds ranging from 6/1 – 140/1.

The average win odds were a bit over 46/1.

One unit to win on every tip would have cost 560 and yielded 698.

Top5

There were 69 golfers (incl the 15 winners) who placed Top5. ie 15 winners and 54 places.

Their average win odds were a bit over 54/1, so the average place odds were 13.5/1.

There would have been some ties, so maybe the average place odds were 11/1? I didn’t check.

This means that one unit per golfer for Top5 would have cost 560 and yielded 760.

Top10

I didn’t crunch the odds but, for the record, the total number of golfers who placed Top10 was 114. Roughly 25%.

Conclusions

I’m going ok. There’s a profit there for win, each way & place punters, although it’s a very fragile thing. Like the psyches of tipsters; mine included!

Tipping is public and thus sets one up for plenty of ridicule, frustration and embarrassment; big plaudits to those who, unlike me, do it properly!

Most of my winners were away from the two primary Tours – PGA & Euro – confirming my long held belief that the weaker a field the greater the opportunity to profit via betting on research of that less disclosed form.

I’ll decide soon whether to continue my tipping; currently I feel about 50:50 and hence this review. Feedback is therefore welcomed.

For the record, everything I’ve tipped can be found here.

Cheers, Mike.

 

Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 27 July 2019.

Golf Editorial

20190727 The Western Amateur

Introduction

There are few consistently great tournaments in the world of golf; The Masters, The Open Championship and some others readily spring to my mind.

It may surprise some people that I regard The Western Amateur as one of those great tournaments.

Western Amateur1

It therefore seems timely, with the 2019 edition to be played next week in Michigan, to reflect back and explain why I hold it in such high esteem.

There are a two main reasons for my affection:

  • It contains a 72-hole stroke play test and is thus a truly helpful indicator of future pro tournament readiness / skill than any other amateur event and;
  • It always showcases most of the best up-and-coming amateurs, from North America and beyond, and is thus an exciting element of golf’s constant rejuvenation.

History

The Western Amateur traces all the way back to 1899 and this year will be the 119th edition.

This year’s host course, Point O’ Woods Golf & Country Club, Benton Harbor, echoes that long heritage, having hosted from 1971-2008, during which time the winners included future Major champions: Ben Crenshaw, Curtis Strange, Hal Sutton (twice),  Phil Mickelson, Justin Leonard (twice) & Tiger Woods!

The trophy is ultimately decided by a few rounds of head-to-head match play, but it’s the 72-hole stroke play precursor on which I will focus here because my interest lies in future stroke play tournaments and betting on their outcomes!

Recent Results

My approach to this article has been to examine the (72-hole) stroke play results since 2011 (as far back as my d’base goes for this event) and the players finishing Top20.

I’m hoping these data will both support the case for my claimed significance of this tournament and also assist bettors and fantasy golf afficionados trying to identify emerging players who will grace professional tournaments with distinction in the months and years ahead.

Here are some selected names and their placings from recent years’ stroke play over 72 holes:

2018: Cole Hammer (1); Collin Morikawa (4); Brandon Wu (5); Min woo Lee (5).

2017: Norman Xiong (1); Doc Redman (6); Cameron Champ (9); Joaquin Niemann (14); Min Woo Lee (14).

2016: Sam Horsfield (1); Doug Ghim (6); Dylan Meyer (12); Joaquin Niemann (12); Cameron Champ (18); Wyndham Clark (20).

2015: Robby Shelton (1); Jordan Niebrugge (3); Sam Horsfield (3); Aaron Wise (3); Ryan Ruffels (8).

2014: Doug Ghim (1); Bryson DeChambeau (2); Xander Schauffele (3); Dou Zecheng (7); Lucas Herbert (7); Scottie Scheffler (10); Beau Hossler (10); CT Pan (13).

2013: Patrick Rodgers (1); Carlos Ortiz (2); Jordan Niebrugge (3); Sebastian Cappelen (7); Robby Shelton (7); Keith Mitchell (13); Beau Hossler (13); Talor Gooch (13).

2012: Justin Thomas (3); Abraham Ancer (3); Zac Blair (9); Brandon Stone (10); Mac Hughes (13); CT Pan (13); Max Homa (13);

2011: Patrick Rodgers (2); Jordan Spieth (3); Emiliano Grillo (4); Derek Ernst (6); CT Pan (7); Peter Uihlein (7); Mac Hughes (9); Andrew Putnam (11); Patrick Cantlay (16); Russell Henley (18).

Conclusions

As you can see, the further back we go the better the talent looks; of course. This is because sometimes it takes a while to mature into the professional ranks.

Some amateur stars never even try while others, such as Jordan Niebrugge (mentioned twice above), don’t make an early impact and perhaps never will.

Chris Williams, for example, who won the Western Amateur in 2011 & 2012, turned pro with the highest of expectations but, sadly, never won and, even more tragically, last week announced his retirement  from pro golf at just age 27.

However, my primary theme here is future successful pro talent.

22-y-o Collin Morikawa by now need no introduction and, after a stellar US Open and a 2nd & 4th in his past two PGA Tour events, may even grab his first win this week in Nevada. If not, it’s not far away.

20-y-o Aussie Min Woo Lee features in 2017 & 2018 above. He hits it a mile, made it through to the Web.com QSchool Final and has since finished 4th (Saudi Arabia) & 5th (Perth) on the European Tour this year along with meritorious Top30’s at: Valderrama, Qatar & the Volvo China Open.

20-y-o Chilean Joaquin Niemann also features twice above. On the PGA Tour, where he earned his card after just 8 pro starts! he’s notched 3xTop10’s in his past five starts and it’s only a matter of time before be breaks through for his first win. Interestingly, he was denied college entry in USA after failing an English language proficiency test; it was surely that college’s loss;

21-y-o Doc Redman is fast becoming well-known. Since turning pro in 2018 he’s grabbed a MacKenzie Tour card in Canada, snagged a Top20 in the PGA Tour’s Wells Fargo Championship then a 2nd in the Rocket Mortgage and last week was 20th in the Open Championship! Progression indeed! Watch out for him on the Fall Swing and beyond;

Deeper, looking for guys in those 2017 & 2018 Western Amateur top 20’s who are now pro’s and may win sometime soon, hopefully at decent odds, I have so far flagged the following:

  • 23-y-o Patrick Flavin (who has been making his way on PGA Tour Latinoamerica and recently won the Bupa Matchplay there);
  • Stanford’s Brandon Wu, who I expect to turn pro soon, made the cut at the US Open this year (+1 285 at Pebble Beach);
  • 22-y-o Nick Hardy, who finished 3rd in 2017, has played on various tours, including made cuts in the PGA Tour’s John Deere & Barracuda. He won last month on the Adams Tour (Supreme Lending classic) and I expect his confidence and comfort level to rise over the next year or so;
  • 22-y-o William Gordon who was 9th in 2017 was 4th in the 2018 US Amateur stroke play and then a losing match play quarter-finalist. He’s joined the MacKenzie Tour with just one missed cut and placed 28th in his only Korn Ferry start (Utah). I expect his talent to shine through over the next year or so.

 

Cheers and good luck with all your golf gambling involvement.

 

Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 26 July 2019.

Uncategorized

20200726 Golf Re-Scheduling in 2020

The timing of Olympic Games Mens’ golf in 2020 (30 Jul – 2 Aug) will necessitate some tournament date changes next year.

While addressing that matter, it seems a good idea to simultaneously correct the mistake that occurred in 2019 of scheduling a WGC in America the week after the Open Championship.

Here’s my suggested schedule for 2020:

Dates Tournament Tour
Start Finish
25-Jun 28-Jun Rocket Mortgage PGA
25-Jun 28-Jun Valderrama Masters Euro
02-Jul 05-Jul WGC FedEx St Jude All
09-Jul 12-Jul John Deere Classic PGA
09-Jul 12-Jul Scottish Open Euro
16-Jul 19-Jul Open Championship All
16-Jul 19-Jul Barbasol Championship PGA
23-Jul 26-Jul 3M Championship PGA
23-Jul 26-Jul Irish Open Euro
30-Jul 02-Aug Olympic Golf All
30-Jul 02-Aug Barracuda PGA
05-Aug 08-Aug Wyndham PGA
05-Aug 08-Aug British Masters Euro
12-Aug 15-Aug Northern Trust PGA
12-Aug 15-Aug Czech Masters Euro
19-Aug 22-Aug BMW PGA
19-Aug 22-Aug Omega European Euro
26-Aug 29-Aug Tour Championship PGA
26-Aug 29-Aug Scandinavian Masters Euro

 

Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 26 July 2019.

Uncategorized

20190627 The Ridiculous Open Championship Website

The site url is: The Open For many years it has been the worst website in the world of golf. Sadly, it’s returned in 2019 more or less unchanged.

There are myriad reasons for its bottom-feeder status among golf sites, but the one that has always frustrated me the most is its player listing. This is is a completely incompetent, outmoded, collage of confusion – allied with an utter lack of appreciation of user needs.

Firstly, when you land on the homepage there is no link entitled ‘Players’ or ‘Field’ or ‘Qualifiers’. That’s ridiculous.

I’d suggest that finding out who’s playing would rank higher in user priorities than the links that are presented such as: ‘Upcoming Venues” or ‘Join the One Club”. I mean, seriously?

In fact, there are only two significant reasons for a person to visit the site in, say, May or June: finding out about players or tickets.

Anyway, you click the ‘Menu’ icon. Happily, there’s an entry entitled ‘Players & Qualification’ so you select that and it loads a page that contains, among a lot of dross, a link entitled ‘Players in the field’. This is an irritating extra step, but at least you feel you’re close to seeing the player list you seek.

What occurs next is not so good; in fact, it’s the most fucking brainless approach to a field list that has ever existed in the history of golf on the internet!

The ‘Players in the Field’ page loads and there is an icon at the top entitled ‘Filters’. Selecting it gives you 5 options: Champions, Amateurs, Debutants, Exempt & Not Playing. The last one is especially hilarious; as if you care that some retired 59-y-o who won The Open 30-some years ago isn’t going to get out of his wheelchair and use his last exemption in 2019!

Anyway, you’re looking for the players who will be playing and the only item among those 5 filters that seems logical is ‘Exempt’, so naturally you select it but it only returns a message stating “No results. Please try making your search a little wider.” Wider? wtf?

Not only is this moronic, but selecting any of those 5 filters returns the same ‘no results’ message. You wonder to yourself what level of website haplessness this represents.

However, you soldier on. Below the five useless filters there is a set of player pics and names. You immediately wonder how they’re ordered as the first two names are: Prom Meesawat & Yoshinori Fujimoto, so you know this listing is not in alphabetical or fame order.

However, upon scrolling, you discover there are 18 pics & names which you intuitively know, as a golf fan, is not everybody who has qualified as at today (27 June 2019) – just three weeks before tee-off.

Also, Ian Baker-Finch is listed and you can’t recall him teeing it up in a golf tournament for years. Anyway, despite some growing suspicions, you continue your torturous website experience.

After initially being concerned that there were only 18 qualifiers listed, you scroll and discover a ‘Load More’ button, off screen, at the bottom of the page. You click it and 18 more pics and names are added in a new page. It’s hard to put into words how annoying this is but you’re getting the hang of such inconvenient impishness and scroll, again, to the bottom of the new page.

Sure enough, there’s an icon entitled ‘Load More’. So you click it and, yes you guessed it, another 18 pics & players load. You’re up to 54 players now and you wonder how long this madness will go on!

Nonetheless, like a monkey in training, you scroll, again, to the bottom of this new page. Sure enough, there’s that icon entitled ‘Load More’ so you click it and, lo and behold, a new page loads with 18 more pics & players added. 72 players.

Scroll to the bottom, again, and there’s the now too familiar ‘Load More’ icon; it’s now as welcome as a red warning light on your dashboard in rush hour, when it’s raining and you’re running late for a meeting!

But, like the helpless victim you now are, you click it and a new page loads and, now a fully trained monkey, you immediately scroll to the bottom and discover that there’s no ‘Load More’ icon there. Your field of Open qualifiers must be complete! Your search for The Holy Grail is over!

The final two players listed are: Padraig Harrington & Rory McIlroy, confirming, as you suspected from the first page, that the listing is randomised. Anyway, to make sense of a now huge page, and to get rid of the unnecessary player photos, you copy it and paste it into MS Excel.

There, you filter out all the redundant data and end up with a list of 75 players to contemplate. At last, sigh.

To try and double-check these data, you visit the European Tour site for The Open and select ‘Entry List’. It returns a message stating “Entry List will be displayed here when it is made available” Not for the first time, the ET site proves unhelpful.

However, you then recall (too late!) some output from the excellent and helpful Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) on the other side of the world; a 26 June (yesterday) tweet linking to article for PGATour entitled: 2019 Qualifiers for majors, THE PLAYERS, WGCs

You check it and find there are 135 players listed as qualified for The Open; no Ian Baker-Finch, by the way.

Wait, 135 players? The Official site lists only 75. Somebody’s wrong!

Of course, the culprit is the Official Open website with its exasperatingly hopeless approach to user-friendliness – and to pretty much everything else.

My two conclusions:

  1. If you want info on Europe’s only golf Major, go to a USA source and;
  2. For health reasons, never, ever, ever, visit the Official Open site.

 

Ⓒ Copyright MJ Miller (Mike) 27 June 2019.

 

 

 

Announcement

20190617 Important Announcement!

Exec Summary

Henceforth, my own published prices each week will be a lot more opinionated.

Hiya,

I’ve been publicly churning out my tournament sheets since 2012; privately since 2003. In recent times I’ve become bored with the player pricing aspect. Fair enough, right?

So, to re-energise my interest, I plan to change things up a bit.

Background

I’ve always calculated my own prices (odds) for each player to win outright – for just about every golf tournament on which there is betting (and dfs).

If I planned to publish my prices, I mostly awaited bookmaker prices & cross-checked before publication, for three reasons:

  • Sometimes, I want to bet on what I view as a wrong bookmaker price before sharing and;
  • We all make mistakes so I like to ensure that I don’t publish too many large, or just plain stupid, pricing errors and, most significantly;
  • I massage a lot of my own prices closer to the market, simply because I can’t be bothered defending, or discussing on twitter, 57 differing price opinions for which I have a low care factor.

So, an element of my sheet preparation process has been price conservatism. That’s now out the door.

My New Approach

For selected tournaments, I’m henceforth going to publish my own completely unedited prices for followers, alongside the market prices. I’ll do this for at least: PGA, European, Champions & LPGA Tours; more if time permits….

Over time you’ll be able to judge for yourself whether or not this higher level of price differentiation is a value-add. If it’s not, I’ll stop.

Why Bother?

Firstly, it’ll be more enjoyable for me and I need that shot in the arm!

Secondly, this output could be of interest because the state of today’s odds-making is such that in golf, as in other sports, there is only a tiny group of professionals and all other ‘bookmakers’ (sic) or ‘odds-setters’ (sic) simply: steal, Copy & Paste.

In such an environment, one odds-maker’s opinion can swiftly become every bookmaker’s opinion and then quickly morph into a uniform, global, betting market.

I’m going to bring to this environment a second, independent, set of strong price opinions that will sometimes conflict with that global uniformity.

What does this mean for you?

It means there’ll often be an alternative, informed, price opinion out there.

For example, you may be staring at a bookmaker or betting exchange price or a DK salary and thinking to yourself “That’s just fucking wrong!”

Given the above-mentioned homegeneity in betting markets, there’s nowhere for you to get a second opinion – to affirm or challenge your personal judgement.

My hope is that my output might be that second opinion.

Some Comments on Modern Bookmaking

With the ever-increasing, global, corporatisation & computerisation of sports bookmaking, accountants and risk managers (ie mostly colourless wankers) are looking over the shoulders of every bookmaker, every week.

This oversight has two profound effects:

Firstly, it creates Fear.

Once a golf betting market exists, every bookmaker is reluctant to challenge it because the only way to protect his job after a bad week’s results is to have a defence in place.

A common & good defence is, “Our prices were in line with the market. Sorry Boss, not my fault, the wrong guy won.”

Secondly, the primary flow-on effect of this fear is the auto-generation of Sameness or Price Uniformity.

A golf bookmaker can now rarely (never?) use his skills, golf & customer knowledge to try to make more money for his business via price differentiation – so those prices we see, and the dfs salaries which to some extent derive from them, are boringly and suspiciously uniform.

In fact, they’re basically all the same! Always! Everywhere! In a normal human world, there would be many differing, professional, price opinions all over the place. Sadly, the inhumane accountants have put paid to that!

In Conclusion

I’ll get started as soon as I can. Two or three tournaments this week; full-on by next week.

It won’t be every tournament (I don’t have the time) but I’ll properly prepare and publish as much as I can.

Based on my past observations, you’ll be surprised at the size of some of the price variances, and hopefully pleased as well.

Good Luck with all of your golf gambling involvement.

Cheers, Mike.